Fantasy Baseball Advice: Week 15 Starting Pitcher Outlook & Rankings

Written on July 7, 2013 at 10:32 am by Brandon Goldenberg - RotoBaller.com

In another edition of the Weekly Starting Pitching Outlook, I?ll be attempting to rank the top 75 starting pitchers for the upcoming week, ranking each matchup on a 1-5 scale. If you?re a first-time reader, most pitchers in the top 40 are must-starts in any league. A difference of a few ranking slots doesn?t mean a whole lot.

The final week of the unofficial ?First Half? of the baseball season brings about a ton of two-start pitching options. With the All Star Break nearly upon us, there are a lot of lower-end two-start options this week, as a lot of teams are saving their aces for the All Star Game. As we get closer to the All Star Game, some teams may move pitchers around, and we will try to stay on top of all the adjustments as pitchers? matchups are changed after this article is published. Let?s get started with the top 75.

Rank	Pitcher	Game 1	Game 2
1	Cole Hamels	v WAS. Rating: 5	v CHW. Rating: 5
2	Max Scherzer	@CLE. Rating: 5	v TEX. Rating: 5
3	Matt Harvey	@SF. Rating: 5	@PIT. Rating: 5
4	Adam Wainwright	@HOU. Rating: 5
5	Stephen Strasburg	@MIA. Rating: 5
6	Cliff Lee	v WAS. Rating: 5
7	Justin Verlander	v CHW. Rating: 5	v TEX. Rating: 5
8	Clayton Kershaw	v COL. Rating: 5
9	Felix Hernandez	v BOS. Rating: 5	v LAA. Rating: 5
10	Madison Bumgarner	@SD. Rating: 5
11	Yu Darvish	@BAL. Rating: 5
12	Shelby Miller	v HOU. Rating: 5
13	Jose Fernandez	v WAS. Rating: 5
14	Matt Cain	v NYM. Rating: 5
15	Homer Bailey	@MIL. Rating: 5	@ATL. Rating: 5
16	CC Sabathia	v KC. Rating: 5	v MIN. Rating: 5
17	Julio Teheran	@MIA. Rating: 5	v CIN. Rating: 5
18	Gio Gonzalez	v PHI. Rating: 5
19	Mat Latos	@ATL. Rating: 5
20	Jordan Zimmermann	@PHI. Rating: 5
21	Lance Lynn	@CHC. Rating: 5
22	David Price	v HOU. Rating: 5
23	Bartolo Colon	@PIT. Rating: 5	v BOS. Rating: 4
24	Anibal Sanchez	v CHW. Rating: 5
25	AJ Burnett	v NYM. Rating: 5
26	Chris Sale	@DET. Rating: 5
27	Matt Garza	@CHW. Rating: 5	v STL. Rating: 4
28	Francisco Liriano	v OAK. Rating: 5
29	Kyle Lohse	v CIN. Rating: 5	@ARI. Rating: 5
30	Hyun-Jin Ryu	@ARI. Rating: 5
31	Hisashi Iwakuma	v BOS. Rating: 4	v LAA. Rating: 4
32	Jeff Samardzija	v LAA. Rating: 4
33	Patrick Corbin	v MIL. Rating: 5
34	Doug Fister	v TEX. Rating: 4
35	Kris Medlen	v CIN. Rating: 5
36	Matt Moore	v MIN. Rating: 4
37	John Lackey	@OAK. Rating: 5
38	Zack Greinke	@ARI. Rating: 5	v COL. Rating: 4
39	Derek Holland	@BAL. Rating: 5	@DET. Rating: 4
40	Dan Straily	@PIT. Rating: 5
41	Josh Johnson	@CLE. Rating: 4	@BAL. Rating: 4
42	Travis Wood	v LAA. Rating: 5	v STL. Rating: 4
43	Jered Weaver	@SEA. Rating: 4
44	Ervin Santana	@NYY. Rating: 5
45	Jeff Locke	v OAK. Rating: 4	v NYM. Rating: 5
46	Dillon Gee	@SF. Rating: 4
47	Hiroki Kuroda	v KC. Rating: 5
48	Tim Hudson	@MIA. Rating: 5
49	Jarrod Parker	v BOS. Rating: 3
50	Tony Cingrani	@MIL. Rating: 4	@ATL. Rating: 5
51	Jhoulys Chacin	@SD. Rating: 5	@LAD. Rating: 3
52	Mike Leake	@MIL. Rating: 4
53	R.A. Dickey	@BAL. Rating: 3
54	Eric Stults	v COL. Rating: 5	v SF. Rating: 4
55	Ricky Nolasco	@ARI. Rating: 4	@COL. Rating: 3
56	Andrew Cashner	v COL. Rating: 4
57	Scott Feldman	v TEX. Rating: 4	v TOR. Rating: 4
58	Yovani Gallardo	@ARI. Rating: 4
59	Jorge De La Rosa	@SD. Rating: 4
60	Jeremy Hellickson	v MIN. Rating: 4
61	Felix Doubront	@SEA. Rating: 4
62	Jacob Turner	v ATL. Rating: 3
63	Jon Lester	@SEA. Rating: 4	@OAK. Rating: 3
64	Scott Kazmir	v DET. Rating: 3	v KC. Rating: 4
65	Jeremy Hefner	@PIT. Rating: 4
66	Jose Quintana	@DET. Rating: 3	@PHI. Rating: 4
67	Randall Delgado	v LAD. Rating: 3	v MIL. Rating: 4
68	Tim Lincecum	v NYM. Rating: 5	@SD. Rating: 4
69	Stephen Fife	v COL. Rating: 4
70	AJ Griffin	v BOS. Rating: 3
71	Chris Archer	v MIN. Rating: 4	v HOU. Rating: 5
72	Tyler Chatwood	@SD. Rating: 4	@LAD. Rating: 3
73	Gerrit Cole	v OAK. Rating: 4
74	Miguel Gonzalez	v TEX. Rating: 4
75	Martin Perez	@BAL. Rating: 4	@DET. Rating: 3

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Two-Start Pitchers to Consider

• Now the owner of an ERA/FIP of 3.70/3.41, Eric Stults is scheduled to face the Rockies and Giants this week. Stults hasn?t been a big strikeout pitcher this year, with a rate of just 5.54 K/9 over 112 innings. He?s been able to succeed with his low strikeout rate by showing off good control, with a BB% of just 4.8% on the year, and a homerun rate of just 0.64/9. In 2013, the Giants have rated sixth-best in the league with a? wRC+ of 101 against lefties, contrasted by the Rockies subpar wRC+ of just 88 (21st in the majors).? Stults is owned in just under 30% of Yahoo leagues, and for this week, he?s an average 12-team option.
• In a just-completed trade on Saturday night, the veteran Marlins pitcher Ricky Nolasco was traded to the Dodgers. With the Marlins, he was scheduled to pitch on Monday and Sunday, but my guess is that the Dodgers will throw him out there on Tuesday and Sunday (the Marlins are only playing six games this week) and not throw Zack Greinke off his schedule. If he does pitch on Tuesday and Sunday, Nolasco will go against the Diamondbacks and the Braves. The Braves have the seventh-best wRC+ and ninth-best wOBA on the year against righties, with the Diamondbacks placing just 23rd?and 13th, respectively.? Nolasco has been pretty good this year, with a FIP of 3.51 that well reflects well his ERA of 3.85. His 3.60 K/BB ratio isn?t terrific, but it?s passable. Moving from Miami to Los Angeles should help him a bit, as the Chavez Ravine is much more pitcher friendly, and is as low a?22nd on the list of home-run friendly stadiums.?He?s worth paying attention to, as his start dates aren?t guaranteed, but he should turn out to be a decent 12-team two-start pitcher this week.
• Going up against Texas and Toronto this week, Scott Feldman came in ranked 57th?this week. In his AL debut last week, he held the White Sox to just two runs over six innings. His 3.43 ERA seems a bit low, with a FIP of 3.90 and xFIP of 3.78, likely due to his low BABIP of just .257. Both the Rangers and Blue Jays rank in the upper half in terms of wRC+ and wOBA and look to be pretty tough matchups. He has shown a bit of a skill at generating ground balls, at a rate this year of 50.7% to help counteract his low strikeout rate of just 6.77 per 9 innings. I?m not in love with the matchups this week, but in deeper leagues if you need a two-start guy, the Burlingame High School product is a decent option this week.
• Pitching 7 strong innings last week and giving up only one earned run against the Padres, Jon Lester lowered his FIP to 4.10 on the season. His 4.41 ERA seems a bit high, but holding a poor HR/FB rate of 12% on the year tends to inflate the ERA a bit. He?s been getting a lot of ground balls this year (as he?s tended to over his career) at just under 50%. He does have an xFIP of 3.96 on the year, suggesting he?ll be better as the year goes on. Lester is scheduled to face off against the Mariners and Athletics this week; on the bright side, both Seattle and Oakland have home fields very favorable to ground ball pitchers, ranking in the bottom quarter for home runs allowed. I think he?s a pretty good deep league start this week.
• Scott Kazmir hasn?t had a terrific comeback season so far, with ERA/FIP of 4.86/4.54. He?s been getting killed on homeruns this year, with a home run rate of 1.58/9 and a HR/FB rate of 14.9%. His xFIP of 3.92 suggests that Kazmir should pitch better on the year, with a normalized homerun rate to help deflate his ERA. This week, Kazmir is facing off against Detroit and Kansas City. The Tigers have been dominant against lefties this year, with the league?s second-best wRC+. On the other hand, the Royals have been pretty average against lefties, with a wRC+ of just 92. While I would rather not throw Kazmir into my lineup against Detroit, he?s an average starter in deep leagues this week.
• Randall Delgado has been a statistical anomaly in his four starts this year, with an ERA of 3.67, a FIP of 4.55 and an xFIP of 3.07. His strikeout rate this year has been good in a small sample size, at 8.33 per 9 innings, to go with a low walk rate of just 1.33 per 9. His problems have come via the long ball, with 2.0 HR/9 on the year and a HR/FB rate of 22.2%, each unsustainably high. Delgado is going up against the Dodgers and the Brewers this week. The Dodgers have been on fire the last few weeks, with Puig and Ramirez hitting well; as a result, I?d rather not start him against the Dodgers in daily leagues, but in a deeper league he?s an average play this week.
• Tim Lincecum makes the back end of my top 75 again, this week going up against the Mets and Padres, two bottom-third offenses in terms of wRC+. Lincecum has been better than advertised on the year, with his FIP of 3.70 well below his ERA of 4.66. His 2.35 K/BB rate on the year isn?t very pretty, and he?s suffering from a seemingly unlucky line drive rate of 27.2% on the year. His xFIP of just 3.47 suggests his line drive rate will start to fall eventually. As a result, I think he?s a pretty good start in deep leagues this week.

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Random Thoughts, Feelings and Stats

• Anibal Sanchez made his return from the DL on Saturday, pitching against the Indians. He was taken out after 5 innings and 73 pitches, after the Tigers staked a 7-1 lead. He walked one, allowed three hits and struck out four. He?s going up against the White Sox next week, and I like the matchup.
• David Price also returned from the DL?last week, shutting out the Astros over 7 innings. This week, he faces the Astros again, surprisingly a top-10 offense against lefties on the year. Either way, I start him with confidence this week as he looks to retain his ace-status.
• That Jose Fernandez call I made a few weeks ago is looking pretty good. ?Since featuring the young phenom in my week 9 outlook, he?s given up six earned runs in six games. His shiny FIP of 3.02? goes well with his strikeout rate of 25.1%.
• Dan Haren looks to come back into the Nationals rotation this week, replacing Ross Detwiler who has been disabled with back problems. Haren was giving up a ton of home runs (2.09 per 9 innings) before his DL stint, had a high BABIP (.328) and a low strand rate (65.4%). He probably isn?t a very good pitcher, but he doesn?t deserve a 6.15 ERA.
• Can?t believe I?ll now be mentioning Chien-Ming Wang in two articles in a row, but he was demoted to AAA over the weekend;? Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos must be a reader. To fill Wang?s hole, Anthopoulos called up Todd Redmond. Over 26.2 innings in AAA this year, he had a FIP of 2.56. He probably isn?t worth the add in anything but the deepest of leagues.
• Tony Cingrani came back into the rotation last weekend against the Giants, replacing Johnny Cueto. He didn?t pitch particularly well, walking 4, and giving up 4 hits over 5.2 innings while striking out 5. Cingrani is facing two pretty good offenses this week (Braves and Brewers) but I like the left hander as a short term fill in.
• A.J. Burnett is slated to return from the DL this week going up against the Cubs. The Cubs are a pretty nice matchup to return to, with a bottom 5 offense against righties on the year. I rated him the 25th-best pitcher for this week, as I think he?ll return to being a very good pitcher relatively quickly. His strikeout rate of nearly 10 K/9 innings on the year seems a bit unsustainable, compared to his career rate of just 8.27 K/ 9. He?s also been getting more ground balls than you can shake a stick at, with a rate of 55% on the year (fifth-best in all of baseball). With a FIP of just 3.33, and an xFIP of 3.09 as compared to his ERA of 3.12, I think Burnett will reestablish himself as a top 30 pitching option for the second half of the season.

That?s all for this week, folks. Enjoy the All Star Break, and be sure to tip your waitresses.?

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